Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza attempts to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Oh, hello. You’re still here? I wasn’t sure you’d come by again this week. It’s an odd collection of days and ensuing circumstances to sift through. So much so that I’ve been struggling to pinpoint an intro topic. Usually, inspiration strikes well before Tuesday morning, which is when I traditionally sit down and type out the facts running through my head and the accompanying feelings nagging near my chest.
I don’t want to talk about New Year’s resolutions. Besides, we side-eyed their predictable overuse in last week’s column. Nor do I feel compelled to serve up a “when do you take down the Christmas tree” conversation. This should not be a debate. Your tree. Your choice. Personally, I want the kitsch of the holidays packed up and stored in my attic ASAP. But if plastic icicles and dry pine needles are your thing, by all means, you do you.
That has sort of been the conceit of this piece all season. You do you. Be my guest. Go ahead and let that freak flag fly. If you’re still playing fantasy in Week 18, then it’s a philosophy you’ve likely already adopted. I’m kidding, kind of. Not tossing shade, at all. I sincerely appreciate a collection of seemingly risk-seeking contrarians who are willing to live the stream so hard that they’ll potentially forgo their most productive players in a championship-clinching weekend for whichever free agents are still suiting up. That is some Icarus-level flying close to the sun, and I am here for it.
Maybe that should be the focus of today’s column? The thrill associated with venturing into unknown territory? After all, nobody courts danger like fantasy football fanatics. We’re basically all Tom Cruise taking on another “Mission: Impossible” while continuing to do our own stunts. Actually, I am not at all like Tom Cruise (outside of, perhaps, being among the vertically challenged), but kudos to you (and him) for staying fit and chasing the adrenaline. If ever the virtual game presented a “go big or go home” moment, it’s Week 18.
Talk about navigating land mines. ALL OF THE FOOTBALL will colossally collide this Saturday and Sunday. Hearts and minds cannot be more diametrically opposed than when real-life postseason hopes and virtual Super Bowls are concurrently on the line.
Imagine starting Bucky Irving while wearing a Bijan Robinson jersey. Or living in Cincinnati but praying that Pat Freiermuth takes advantage of an ultra-plus matchup. Or a passionate Eagles fan who has gleefully banked on Saquon Barkley throughout the year only to see him rest in a historic revenge game? Talk about facts versus feelings! I’m getting warm just typing about the dark and twisted potentialities.
So let’s do this damn thing for a final time (or until my corporate overloads demand a “Facts vs. Feelings: Year in Review edition,” which will certainly happen before February … maybe March. Relish it all. The butterflies. The goose bumps. And even the nail biting.
Once more, into the breach … and to each his or her own!
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Not many have leaned into the path less traveled as hard as Mayfield. The 29-year-old clearly resolved in 2024 to quiet the haters who deemed his 2023 success a fluke, besting last season’s numbers by a significant margin. Mayfield currently ranks third at the quarterback position in passing yards with 4,279 (behind Joe Burrow and Jared Goff) and third among QBs in total TDs with 42 (behind Burrow with 44 and Lamar Jackson with 43). Astoundingly, the Bucs quarterback has tossed a league-high 67 TD passes over his past two seasons.
Currently the virtual game’s QB5 overall, Mayfield is averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game. He has posted nine games of 22 or more fantasy points (only Jackson has more) and has delivered five showings as a top-two producer at the position (tied for the most in the NFL). That’s not bad for a guy who entered late August with an overall ADP of 173 and was picked in only 32% of leagues.
There are a few ways the Bucs can extend their season, but a win versus the New Orleans Saints would be the easiest and most favorable. With zero signs of slowing down, Mayfield figures to come out slinging in an attempt to win the NFC South. New Orleans’ defense has struggled to limit big aerial plays, tying the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams in allowing the fifth-most passes of 20 or more yards (53) while matching the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions for the fourth-most throws of 40 or more yards (10) allowed. That sets up nicely for a player seemingly delighted at the prospect of repping the underdog while regularly dominating on their behalf.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins: The Tyreek Hill experience has never been dull. That’s unlikely to change in Week 18. While the Cheetah is coming off his second-highest catch total (9) and third-highest receiving total (105 yards) of the season, his path to Week 18 fantasy dominance isn’t without travail. The major issue is the availability of Tua Tagovailoa, who has been dealing with a hip issue that kept him out of Week 17.
Tyler Huntley put forth an admirable effort in Tagovailoa’s stead last Sunday, topping the Browns and keeping the Fins in the playoff hunt as a result. While the former Baltimore Ravens backup successfully locked in on Hill, it’s worth noting that Hill has yet to catch a touchdown pass from any Miami quarterback not named Tua.
The matchup at the New York Jets is additionally precarious. On the one hand, Hill managed his best fantasy showing of 2024 versus New York (28 FPTS) back in Week 14. On the other hand, the Rams and Buffalo Bills logged just 18 and 29 passing attempts, respectively, against Gang Green’s defense in lopsided affairs over the past two weeks. If New York’s defense were to fold early, then Hill would need a TD to round out his fantasy showing. Given a spread of 1.5 points, however, the odds of a hearty back-and-forth are high.
Additionally working in Hill’s favor is the fact that five WRs have cleared 20 fantasy points (including three this month) when facing the Jets. Managers are best advised to brace for WR2 numbers, but there is hope for a WR1 fantasy showing from Hill in what is a high-stakes scenario for the Fins on Sunday.
Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers: If we’re looking to the future, then Coker is the answer. But the future might have already begun. Adam Thielen has, undoubtedly, emerged as Carolina’s most trusted (and productive) slot option. Additionally, Xavier Legette has continued to demand attention, drawing an eyebrow-raising nine looks in Week 17. But Coker, who ranks seventh among WRs in yards per target (10.7) and eighth at the position in yards per reception (16.6), has materialized as Bryce Young’s favorite downfield weapon.
Just as Alec Pierce was last week’s highlighted boom option (which worked out pretty well), consider Coker a prime upside play this go-around. The Panthers are playing for pride and practice, both of which could only benefit this young squad. Carolina figures to experience plenty of both at Atlanta.
The Falcons have allowed 24 WRs to reach at least 10 fantasy points. Moreover, the Dirty Birds’ defense has given up double-digit fantasy points to two wideouts in seven separate games, including Week 6 versus Carolina. Additionally, the Falcons have registered the highest catch rate allowed to WRs (70%) and the most receiving scores given up to the position (21). With Young attempting to end his sophomore campaign on a heroic note (+8), Coker’s ceiling figures to be utilized. Flex him for the fun.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Injuries and QB swaps hampered the start of Warren’s season. Once he was back to health and Russell Wilson was firmly installed under center, however, the 26-year-old started to pick up steam. In fact, Warren has cleared nine fantasy points in every game since the team’s Week 9 bye (save for Pittsburgh’s stinker at Philly in Week 15). His backfield presence has continued to blossom into the double-digit weeks, as Warren has logged 16 more touches in back-to-back efforts, including exactly five grabs in two straight games.
The Steelers have already clinched a playoff berth, but a win over the Bengals (and a loss from the Ravens) would earn the squad the AFC North’s top spot. It would make sense then for Pittsburgh to attack Cincinnati’s biggest vulnerabilities. Accordingly, the Bengals have allowed a staggering 89% catch rate to opposing running backs. For context, Jerome Ford caught 5 of 5 balls for 39 receiving yards in Week 16 and Tyjae Spears converted 6 of 7 looks for 87 receiving yards and a score in Week 15.
Noting Warren’s role as the backfield’s preferred pass catcher (12.6% target share, RB9), the former Oklahoma State product (by way of Utah State) figures to flirt with another five grabs in Week 18. In what’s expected to be a close game (the Steelers are +1.5), Warren should see plenty of action while delivering respectable RB2 numbers in PPR-friendly formats.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons: Talk about living life on the edge. The Pitts Coaster™ is engineered to simulate a never-ending loop of high vibes and crushing realties. For example, the divisive tight end recorded an impressive 14.4 fantasy points (TE10) in Week 17. However, he posted a suboptimal 12.8 fantasy points over his past five games combined. And so it goes.
We discussed Pitts’ tanking stock back in Week 15, noting Kirk Cousins’ contributions to the tumble. Obviously, changes under center have since occurred and, so, the complexion of the offense has also shifted. Michael Penix Jr. appears to have locked in on Drake London, targeting the star wideout a total of 21 times since assuming the starting gig two games ago. Beyond London, though, the rookie QB seems content to spread the ball around. In fact, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson and Pitts each ranked second on the team in looks in Week 17, drawing five opportunities each.
The sample size might be small, but Pitts should remain among Penix’s favorite options in Week 18. Carolina has struggled to contain tight ends, giving up a league-high 11 scores to the position this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have reprioritized Pitts as an end zone threat, targeting the tight end from 10 yards out in three of his past four outings. The predictability of Pitts’ volume (or lack thereof) makes him a shaky start. However, there’s no denying the appeal of his matchup. Carolina’s defense has allowed 10 different tight ends to reach double-digit fantasy points this season, including Payne Durham (11.6) in Week 17 and Pitts himself back in Week 6. If you’ve ridden the wave this long, why not hang loose for one last hurrah?
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF
