Costs have escalated so much on HS2 that no one really knows quite what the final bill might be anymore. Latest estimates range to as high as £80bn at current prices for the 140-mile London-Birmingham line, but this is expected to come down if private developer funding is found for the new Euston station.
Former Crossrail chief executive Mark Wild took over as chief executive of HS2 on 2nd December 2024 and has set about a full-scale project review to ascertain a true picture of the real cost and schedule.
Wild described HS2’s challenges in evidence to the House of Commons public accounts committee on 19th December.
Mark Wild said: “The programme is in a very serious situation that requires a fundamental reset to enable it to be delivered to the lowest feasible cost. I am committed to delivering this reset over the coming year to ensure the railway can be brought into service safely and efficiently.”
He has been here before, taking charge of the London Crossrail project (Elizabeth Line) when it had fallen way over budget and behind schedule.
Government ministers have not been impressed by HS2 to date. In October transport secretary Louise Haigh – shortly before her unplanned departure from the cabinet – said: “ It has long been clear that the costs of HS2 have been allowed to spiral out of control, but since becoming transport secretary I have seen up close the scale of failure in project delivery – and it’s dire.”
Her successor as transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, told the House of Commons on 17th December: “The continued escalation of costs on HS2 is unacceptable. There have been multiple causes, including continued changes in policy, scope and funding, the costs of environmental and planning compliance, as well as the disruption caused by external factors, primarily covid and the Ukraine conflict, while the recent period of high inflation continues to impact HS2 Ltd and its supply chain. But there have also been significant delivery issues, including cost underestimation with large increases in design costs and lower than planned productivity.”
Wild’s review of the project will be overseen by a ministerial task force set up by the Department for Transport. As well as cost and schedule, the review will also examine capability and culture.
Alexander told MPs: “This work is vital and an absolute priority but we are determined to provide sufficient time to allow Mark Wild to assess the current position, provide his advice and for the government to assess it and agree on a reset budget.
“Until Mark Wild concludes this work, the government cannot be confident in the forecast outturn cost of the project. We are, therefore, managing HS2 Ltd’s delivery through annual funding and delivery targets for this financial year and next, but with reduced delegation on contingency. It will also be necessary to agree longer-term funding for HS2 in the spending review, due to conclude next year.”
While much remains to be done, HS2 Ltd is keen to emphasise the positive, releasing a progress update.
Figures show that 70% of twin-bore tunnels have been excavated to date, representing 38 of the 55 miles being built for the railway. This includes the breakthrough earlier this year of the two tunnel boring machines (TBMs) used to dig the 10-mile Chiltern Tunnel – the longest and deepest on the route.
In all, five out of 12 tunnel drives have been completed. The most recent was the first of four TBMs being used to dig the Northolt Tunnel in north-west London, which finished its drive on 19th December 2024.
The figures also show that 58% of earthworks for the railway’s cuttings, embankments, stations and landscaping have been completed. This represents almost 92 million cubic metres of material moved in total so far. This includes the progress made in central Birmingham to prepare for construction of the city’s Curzon Street station.
Additionally, work has started on construction of 158 out of 227 viaducts and bridges with 13 already built. In September, HS2 completed the deck of the 2.1-mile Colne Valley Viaduct, the UK’s longest rail bridge, which will carry the railway over a series of lakes and waterways on the northwest outskirts of London.
Progress has also been made on the six cut-and-cover tunnels being built on the route, with the 700-metre tunnel near Burton Green in Warwickshire passing the halfway mark in November.
In the year ahead, HS2 also expects to pass a series of construction milestones. This includes the completion of:
- Excavation of the 8.4-mile Northolt Tunnel – the second longest on the line – with three TBMs breaking through in 2025 in addition to the one last month
- Both bores of the 3.5-mile Bromford Tunnel, which will carry the line in and out of Birmingham
- The base slab of Old Oak Common’s underground station box, alongside the start of work on the station platforms
- The first deck section of the River Tame West Viaduct – one of 13 viaducts being built for Delta Junction, the triangular section of the railway east of Birmingham that enables trains to run between London, Birmingham and the north.
- The Copthall tunnel – a 900-metre cut-and-cover tunnel on the outskirts of London between the Northolt Tunnel and the Colne Valley Viaduct.
