With around sixty days to go until the peaceful transfer of power from President Biden to President-Elect Donald Trump, the country is counting down to a new era. The “bro-dominated” government will see a return of the US to its swashbuckling, masculine roots, defined by someone who many see as an “apex male.”
A cornerstone of the incoming administration’s policy is the promise to deport millions of undocumented citizens every year. America will exert itself, establishing a strong southern border and ensuring that if people do come in seeking asylum, they do so through a conventional port of entry. Those crossing into Arizona and New Mexico and throwing away their passports will no longer be tolerated.
To achieve this triumphant feat, Trump is installing Tom Homan as the new border czar, taking over the role previously filled by Kamala Harris. His no-nonsense approach has already become evident in various media appearances and televised committees, showing him to be the kind of man who takes no prisoners. Except, that’s the problem. If Homan is to carry out the will of Trump, he will need to detain hundreds of thousands of people. Where will they go?
Mass deportations did occur before in American history under the 44th President of the United States, Barack Obama. The Harvard Law School graduate deported an estimated six million illegal immigrants during his tenure at a time when the issue wasn’t such a hot political potato. Border forces had the resources they needed to track down those trying to undermine the system, sending them back to their country of origin.
However, the situation deteriorated during the later part of his presidency and Trump, despite his bombast, didn’t manage to reverse it successfully in his first term. Later, President Joe Biden opened the floodgates, encouraging more people to enter the country illegally across the southern border, looking for work opportunities and a better life in the US. Estimates now suggest that there could be over 11 million undocumented individuals living and working in the country, often toiling alongside those who entered legally.
“The current state of the US immigration system means that we see a lot of people arrested who don’t have official US documentation,” Future Bail Bonds explains. “These individuals come into the country, try to find work, get a place to rent, but then discover themselves on the wrong side of the law.”
Of course, the issue isn’t just the sheer numbers, but also a legal system that isn’t set up to deal with tens of millions of people. The sheer level of fact-finding required will be enormous.
Legal Bottlenecks
One problem is the legal bottlenecks. Undocumented people staying in the US currently have the right to appeal deportation proceedings against them, with the court system currently handling over 1.9 million outstanding cases. If Trump is going to deal with this issue, he will have to streamline the process, invest more in legal teams, or change the law, and all of those may be challenging to achieve within the first year of office.
Cost Restraints
Then, there is the cost. While the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is trying to cut costs, the federal expenses involved in removing people from the country could balloon. Some estimates put the total figure at around USD 89 billion per year, though the final tally could be substantially higher.
ICE and other agencies currently don’t have the staffing levels required to carry Trump’s plans. Agencies estimate they may need up to ten times as many people for detention, transportation, and manpower. Operations require boots on the ground, with officers involved in the physical removal of illegal immigrants from the country. Early estimates suggest insufficient people with the relevant skills are available in the states bearing the brunt of mass migration, suggesting that a change of strategy will be necessary. While Trump and Elon Musk are looking at paying off staff in Washington DC to remove them from their jobs, the same carrot-and-stick approach may be required regarding the southern border issue.
“The jail spaces available for regular criminals are actually quite modest,” Future Bail Bonds explains. “Most police stations only keep a dozen or so available at any given time, so many defendants find themselves being moved to conventional prisons across the county or state lines, awaiting trial. This activity is often a punishment in itself, which is why bail is so essential.”
Impact On The Economy
Trump will also need to deal with the impact on the economy. Migrants often contribute their labor to US businesses, so deporting them could affect the US GDP and redirect domestic labor from more productive activities.
Labor shortages in agriculture and construction are the most likely. However, hospitality will also likely take a hit, harming these sectors and preventing them from growing in the way they have recently.
Removing contributors to local economies could also undermine regional government spending plans. Falling tax receipts affect states and counties more than they do the federal officials who control the printing press.
Political Resistance
Then, there is the political resistance Trump will face. Millions of people living close to the southern border don’t agree with mass deportations, despite it being a popular policy. Furthermore, these individuals are highly likely to get involved in activism, including direct action.
State legislatures and courts may also present an issue for Trump. These circuits already defied him during his first presidency, fighting him on the border wall with Mexico and forcing him to scale back his earlier plans. This time around, they aren’t as strong, but they may still attempt delay and diversion tactics.
Constitutional Challenges
Finally, deportations could invoke constitutional challenges. While the new czar, Tom Homan, claims families can be deported together, many removals of illegal migrants will result in splits, particularly among mixed-status families where some members have American residency cards or citizenship, and others don’t.
The fourth amendment could also cause problems for Trump. It prevents officers from engaging in sweeping deportation-related raids and could result in claims of illegal search and seizures.
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