Probabilistic forecasts are a critical piece of the NFL draft game. Instead of filling out mock drafts, NFL teams opt to build models that help them predict how the draft could unfold. After draft week is over, some teams will even reveal the internal probabilities they had for players to fall to certain spots and how that influenced their decision-making.
At ESPN, we do the same exercise. To create our Draft Day Predictor, ESPN Analytics uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict future homes for the top prospects. The accuracy of those factors in past seasons informs the model’s outputs for the upcoming draft.
Our model is updated throughout the predraft process and even live during the draft, which kicks off Thursday at 8 p.m. (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Using the latest outputs from the Draft Day Predictor, let’s try to answer some of the draft’s burning questions … probabilistically. Where are Shedeur Sanders and Ashton Jeanty most likely to land? How might the quarterbacks and wide receivers come off the board, and which sleepers have the best shot at sneaking into Round 1?
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What is Shedeur Sanders’ likeliest landing spot?
With Miami’s Cam Ward the favorite to go No. 1, Sanders presents a very interesting forecast in our model as the second-best quarterback in the class. The predictor has cooled on the idea of the Colorado QB at Nos. 2 or 3 (currently the Browns and Giants, respectively), but those options are still possible; there is a 4% chance he’ll go No. 2 and 7% chance he’ll go No. 3. Of course, the Browns and Giants need long-term quarterbacks, but the Draft Day Predictor also includes the possibility of a team trading up for Sanders in one of those two spots.
Sanders’ chances of getting picked increase to 8% at No. 6 (Raiders) and 9% at No. 7 (Jets). Both teams have a less critical need at quarterback, but the opportunity cost is also lower at those selections. After that, his odds really start to spike. The model gives Sanders a 27% chance of getting selected at the Saints’ No. 9 pick, making that his likeliest landing spot. New Orleans suddenly has a more pressing need at quarterback with Derek Carr’s 2025 status in doubt.
If Sanders slides past the Saints, there’s room for him to fall to much later in the first round. There’s a 24% chance he’ll make it to the Colts’ pick No. 14, and then the Steelers’ No. 21 pick represents his near-absolute floor. Sanders — who is Mel Kiper Jr.’s No. 1 quarterback prospect in the class — has a 99% chance to be off the board after that selection.
Which top QBs are most likely to be available on Day 2?
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe (91%) and Louisville’s Tyler Shough (99%) are the easy answers to this question, per the Draft Day Predictor. They are both possibilities for the Browns (No. 33) and Giants (No. 34) if those teams pass on a QB in Round 1. Jordan Reid’s latest mock draft has Milroe heading to Cleveland at No. 33 (and Shough going to the Giants further down the board).
The trickier answer is Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, a top-three QB on most boards. He has one of the more unusual draft selection curves in our model. Dart starts out with a very low chance to be selected in the low teens (most likely via a trade up), and there’s still only 7% odds that he’s picked at the Seahawks’ No. 18 selection. Then his chances jump to 24% at the Steelers’ No. 21 pick, which is where Reid has him going. The Steelers, of course, still don’t have a quarterback solution, even if Aaron Rodgers has been linked to them.
If Dart makes it past the Steelers, he could get picked at almost any other spot in the 20s. None of those teams has a major need at QB, so a franchise such as the Browns or Giants might look to trade up for Dart — which would be a smart move to secure the fifth-year option guaranteed for all first-round picks.
Still, our model gives Dart a 24% chance to slip out of the first round altogether. If he does, he’ll have a 90% chance to be gone by No. 38 and 95% chance by No. 40.
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If the Steelers pass on QB in the first round, who might be available at their next selection?
Pittsburgh gave up its second-round pick when trading for receiver DK Metcalf this offseason, meaning its next pick is at No. 83. And the QB pickings are slimmer in the third round. Not only would all of the expected first-round quarterbacks (Ward, Sanders, Dart) be gone, but our model also says there’s just a 10% chance that Milroe makes it to No. 83. It’s 14% for Shough.
That means the Steelers would probably have to look at the next tier of QBs unless they trade up. Texas’ Quinn Ewers has a 41% shot to make it that far. Ohio State’s Will Howard (83%), Syracuse’s Kyle McCord (92%) and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (99%) will all likely be on the board, but they might be reaches in the third round. All three passers are ranked outside Kiper’s top 100 prospects.
How far back could the Patriots trade and still get one of the top two tackles?
This class is widely considered to have three headliners: Ward, Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter and Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter. All three could easily be off the board once the Patriots are on the clock. New England has plenty of needs, but offensive tackle is perhaps the most important after the Patriots had the second-worst pass block win rate in the NFL last season (50.9%). The team simply has to get quarterback Drake Maye better protection.
With the expected drop-off in talent at their pick, the Patriots have to be asking themselves if they can afford to trade back. And if so, how far could they drop to still have a decent shot at the top tackles — LSU’s Will Campbell and Missouri’s Armand Membou — in the class?
Per the Draft Day Predictor, moving down to No. 7 (Jets) would give New England an 80% chance that at least one of the two players is available. That number drops quickly from there, though. It is 51% at No. 8 and just 26% at No. 9.
If I were in the Patriots’ war room, I’d be inclined to attempt the trade down and risk losing Campbell and Membou to another team. New England isn’t just a tackle away from becoming competitive — the more value the Patriots can get, the better. And if they end up striking out on Campbell and Membou after trading down, Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. could also be an option (though they might be reaching for him in the top 10).
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If the Bears want Ashton Jeanty, can they land him without trading up?
The short answer: It’s not very likely.
Jeanty’s likeliest landing spot is No. 6 overall (Raiders), so the Bears would have to make a deal with the Jaguars at No. 5 if they are married to landing the top running back in a stacked class. Jeanty has a 91% chance to make it to that spot, but those chances drop to 57% after No. 6.
Though this sounds like it should be an easy decision for the Bears, the model gives insight into the hidden cost of trading up. There’s still a 13% chance that Jeanty slides to No. 10 on his own, which means the Bears could squander extra draft capital for nothing.
Chicago was 27th in yards per rush last season (4.0), and Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards in his final year at Boise State. But this is also a deep running back class, so the Bears could feasibly wait until Day 2 to boost their ground game.
Could the Cowboys land the class’ WR2 at No. 12?
For the sake of this question, let’s say Hunter is the top wide receiver and Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan is the WR2, though our draft experts are not convinced McMillan is the clear second-best option. Texas’ Matthew Golden, Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka and Missouri’s Luther Burden III all have cases. If the Cowboys are set on taking a receiver to add a key second playmaker alongside CeeDee Lamb, they might just be able to land McMillan by staying put.
The Draft Day Predictor gives a 60% chance that McMillan makes it to No. 12. As with Chicago and Jeanty, trading up for McMillan seems unlikely for Dallas because it could really backfire.
Will the Colts be able to get one of the top two tight ends at No. 14?
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren’s most likely landing spot, according to the predictor? No. 14.
Michigan tight end Colston Loveland’s most likely landing spot? Also No. 14.
Both players have the best odds at that spot, as Warren has an 18% chance to be selected, and Loveland is at 12%. So the Colts shouldn’t have to make any trades for one of them. There’s a 95% chance at least one will be available at their current slot. However, it’s a different story if the Colts want to be able to choose between them. Our model gives only a 42% chance that both are on the board.
The Colts have been commonly matched to the tight ends in this class. Indianapolis managed just 39 catches for 467 yards from its tight ends last season. Both numbers ranked in the bottom two in the NFL.
Which wide receiver is likeliest to fall out of the first round: Matthew Golden, Luther Burden III or Emeka Egbuka?
Texas’ Golden appears set to go on Day 1, as our model has him at 99%. His 4.29 speed at the combine turned heads. The other two receivers are close to a coin flip, though. Missouri’s Burden is more likely to fall out of the first round (52%), but Ohio State’s Egbuka is right behind him (exactly 50% odds).
Our model also gives us more information about Egbuka and Burden’s combined chances. There’s a 28% chance both are selected in the first round, a 52% chance only one of the two gets picked in the round and a 20% chance that neither is selected there. The three likeliest first-round spots for the duo are — in some order — No. 25 (Texans), No. 28 (Lions) and No. 30 (Bills).
Can the Chiefs still land a top offensive lineman at No. 31, and who would be available?
The second part of the question is trickier to answer than the first. Let’s assume Campbell, Membou and Banks are gone by No. 31. That leaves some chance Ohio State’s Josh Simmons, Oregon’s Josh Conerly Jr., Alabama’s Tyler Booker or North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel could be left for the Chiefs. (The latter two are interior offensive lineman, which is a less pressing need than tackle for Kansas City.)
But “could” is the key word here, as each player’s individual chances of being available are between 45% and 60%. They are almost a lock collectively, however, with 95% odds that at least one makes it to No. 31.
Which fringe players could sneak into Round 1?
We’re looking at players with 5-20% chances of going in the first round here. Last year, this exercise hit on receiver Xavier Legette, who went at No. 32 to the Panthers after having 19% odds of getting picked in the first round. But we missed on the bigger surprise: wideout Ricky Pearsall one spot earlier to the 49ers.
This year, six players hit the above criteria. The most likely first-round pick of the bunch is Florida State cornerback Azareye’h Thomas (19% chance). Then come Tennessee defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott (11%), Milroe (9%), Minnesota offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery (8%), Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson (8%) and East Carolina cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. (7%).